Panel discussion by Middle East Policy Council in Washington Oct 3

By Afzal Khan
Washington File Special Correspondent

Washington -- Former diplomats and intelligence officers with long experience in the Middle East see the United States facing a complicated process in its efforts to reconstruct and democratize Iraq.

Chas. W. Freeman, a former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia, compared the situation in Iraq to "a badly managed Pentagon-operated theme park."

With "no regime change accomplished" and even the small United Nations presence moving to Jordan for security reasons, "how reconstruction will go is a major question," Freeman said.

However, Freeman added that with the Iraqi Governing Council set up, "clearly some political progress" has been made in Iraq and that "all is not in the dark." But he warned that the United States may now be the target of popular wrath not only in the Middle East but the whole Islamic world.

The U.S. presence in Iraq and its stated democratization aims in that country have given the United States "greater leverage" on Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia to reform. On the other hand, it has also fuelled anti-Americanism and set up Iraq as "a training ground" for terrorism, Freeman said.

Freeman now serves as president of the Middle East Policy Council, which arranged the October 3 seminar titled "Imperial Dreams: Can the Middle East be Transformed."

The other participants were Kenneth Pollack, a former analyst with the Central Intelligence Agency, a former director of Gulf Affairs at the National Security Council and currently a scholar at the Brookings Institution; W. Patrick Lang, a retired colonel and defense intelligence officer for the Middle East and now president of the Global Resources Group; Philip C. Wilcox, Jr., a former State Department foreign service officer and now president of the Foundation for Middle East Peace; and Amy Hawthorne, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Pollack said the situation in Iraq is "not as bad" as the media depicts and "not as good" as the Bush administration proclaims. He said that during a recent visit to Iraq he discovered "remarkable things" being done at the local level by company and battalion commanders, such as providing water and opening schools in villages.

"One positive thing is that there has been no civil war," Pollack said. He said the quality of life in Iraq is better in the Kurdish north and the Shia south than in Baghdad even though the capital was the showpiece of Saddam Hussein before the war.

Pollack said the worst thing is the lack of security and personal safety faced by ordinary Iraqis in their daily lives.

In the best-case scenario, Iraq could evolve into "a pluralistic society" in 10 to 15 years, Pollack said. In the worst case, Iraq could slide into chaos as Lebanon did in the 1970s and 1980s.

In the middle-case scenario that Pollack laid out, Iraq could become like another Bosnia, which today is better off than it was in 1994, but its "life support" would have to be provided by the United States.

Lang, the retired colonel and defense intelligence officer for the Middle East, said the United States is now doing in Iraq what it has done before in Latin America and South-East Asia.

"Pacifying Iraq is a political process," Lang said. "Who is on the other side (fighting us) is the crucial question."

Lang said if the Sunni Arabs, who formed Saddam's ruling elite, support the current guerrilla war, then the United States would have to be prepared for an extended military engagement.

Lang warned that if the United States cannot provide security, the Iraqis will lose "confidence" in the occupation. He said it does not take many guerrillas to create a sense of insecurity and chaos in the country.

Hawthorne, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, raised the issue of democratization leading to secularization in Iraq and the rest of the Middle East. Hawthorne said the Bush administration believes that democracy will lead to secular governments with "pro-West institutions" rather than "political Islam."

Citing the example of the overthrow of the shah of Iran and ensuing Islamic-based regime, Hawthorne said the result in Iraq may be different from the U.S. goal and "the United States will have to be flexible." She said that Islamic society and democracy can be compatible. She added that it could take the "next two years" for Iraqis to reach a decision about what type of government they want.

Wilcox, the former State Department foreign service officer, addressed the issue of terrorism. He said that the United States focuses too single-mindedly on the military destruction of terrorism groups.

"The virus of terrorism will continue (to thrive) if we don't address its causes." He said poverty, abuse of human rights and lack of democracy all encourage terrorism. "Iraq is emerging as a breeding ground for terrorism," he said.

He said "U.S. influence" is needed to solve the causes of terrorism. "We must eliminate the anger and hostility of other nations. Otherwise, we will not get their help to fight global terrorism," he said.

Wilcox stressed the need for the United States to address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

"We must turn to bold and active mediation," he said, adding that "pro-Sharon policies" are not necessarily good for Israel. Tackling this issue would be the most effective tool against terrorism, he said.

Commenting on Israel's war against Hamas without Palestinian help, Wilcox said neither Arafat nor anybody else will risk civil war in fighting Hamas, which wields broad Palestinian public support.

In the question-and-answer session, Freeman commented on the lack of Arabic language skills of U.S. officials operating in the Arab world. He said that only 54 foreign service officers know Arabic to any degree and that about the same number of case officers in the intelligence community are able to use Arabic. He said that leads to communication problems in Iraq.

Lang said the role of civilian affairs officers in the U.S. Army has become so diminished that only the Army Reserves are now called for such duties in Iraq.

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