Richard H. Curtiss, Special to Arab News

WASHINGTON, 27 December 2003 — The Arabs call it “Baraka,” meaning blessed or fortunate. It can be used to describe a happy state of somehow coming up with exactly the right words at the right time.

Thus it is with former governor of Vermont Howard Dean. He’s either a master of timing or very, very lucky. He set out to put some gravitas into his views on foreign policy in a Dec. 15 speech at the Regis Hotel in Los Angeles. The setting of the speech was no coincidence because Democrats expect to obtain a lot of money from Hollywood and its environs. A lot of people feared that when Saddam Hussain was caught the electoral dynamics would change immediately against Dean, the Democratic candidate most critical of President George W. Bush’s handling of the war. Dean did make some quick changes, and went ahead with his seminal speech to show that he has thought carefully about what he will do if he wins the 2004 election.

The speech itself was not particularly exciting. It was very clear that Dean’s handlers wanted to demonstrate that he is not anti-Israel, as the Internet gossips have claimed. It was also clear that under no circumstances was he going to use the word “even-handed” or anything like it if he could possibly avoid it. That term, which he used initially many times, got him into trouble with American boosters of Israel. In fact, most Americans then and now, strongly support an even-handed approach to settling the Arab-Israeli problem.

Because Dean had changed the text of his speech right up to the moment of delivery, his talk was not smooth. He is very fast on his feet and can turn anything into a rousing stem-winding speech. The speech was interesting but it shows that he’s better dealing with spontaneity than with a prepared text. Former Secretary of State Warren Christopher introduced Dean. After the speech, Christopher said there was time for just a few comments from the audience.

One of the very first questioners was Mrs. Anne Kerr, the widow of Malcolm Kerr, who was the president of the American University of Beirut, before he was assassinated during Lebanon’s civil war. Her question pertained to solving the Palestine problem, the basis for any just peace in the Middle East. Unfortunately, despite the fact that most Americans are looking for fair answers on this subject, Dean stuck to his handlers’ advice and did not produce a concrete plan to deal with the Arab-Israeli problem. Since none of the other three main candidates has said anything better on the subject, that apparently is where it is going to stay for the time being.

The Internet had been full of innuendo that Dean is an Israel-basher. The gist of all this was “anyone but Dean.” Although there are nine candidates in the running, four are considered viable in terms of financing and voter enthusiasm. Three of the four supported the war with Iraq and only Dean was against it from the beginning. So far this means that Dean is well in front of the other major candidates even after the capture of Saddam Hussein. The Dec. 18 polls, showed a definite upward spike in Bush’s approval ratings after the capture of Saddam Hussain. Over the long run it doesn’t seem to have changed the dynamics of the war in Iraq. In fact, it may well be that the problems in Iraq will not be alleviated until Iraqis are sure that the United States does plan to leave — the sooner the better.

That poll suggests that 45 percent of the voters said they would probably vote for President Bush, compared with 39 percent who said they would probably vote for his Democratic opponent, no matter who that is. This shows that the odds favor Bush at this time but a Democratic candidate cannot be counted out.

In December Americans became aware that a new group had formed that was sending advertisements aimed at stopping Dean’s progress. It was using highly negative advertising and was obviously a desperate measure to halt Dean’s popularity. Fortunately, it took a very short time, to discover that the suspects were probably staff members of House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt’s campaign or that of Sen. John Kerry. The advertisements first appeared in South Carolina and New Hampshire, both of which will be contested over the next month and a half. The advertising spot opens with a Time magazine cover featuring Osama Bin Laden as music plays that sounds almost like a science fiction movie. As the camera focuses on Bin Laden’s eyes, the words flash on the screen: “Dangerous World,” “No Experience,” and “Dangers Ahead.” The commercials continued saying, “But Howard Dean has no military or foreign policy experience. And Howard Dean cannot compete with George Bush on foreign policy. It’s time for Democrats to think about that — and think about it now. “It appears that up to now this virtually slanderous last-minute approach to halt Dean may backfire so badly that the race may very soon be over. American elections are always unpredictable but it does appear that Dean probably is unstoppable at this point.

Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman, who was defeated as Al Gore’s vice presidential nominee in 2000, has been the most vociferous pro-war candidate in the current election. Obviously he is hoping for a long-delayed boost for his nomination chances, but this has not occurred. The fact that Gore has now backed Dean has sunk Lieberman’s prospects. Many politically aware Americans realize that Lieberman has always supported Israel. The “sleeper candidate” is Gen. Wesley Clark who started his campaign later than any of the other nominees. Probably Clark would have quickly become a fully viable candidate had not Dean’s campaign taken off so rapidly. It also may be that Wesley Clark would be very happy to be a vice presidential nominee providing the military experience that Dean lacks.

Normally, a vice presidential candidate is selected in terms of how he can advance the presidential ticket in a closely contested race. Clark so far has been able to deal with the problems of running for office for the first time, and has made no serious mistakes of any kind.

— Richard H. Curtiss is the executive editor of the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs Magazine.