Amir Taheri

Focused on short-term problems such as power cuts and sporadic terrorist attacks in Baghdad, the media has paid little attention to the long-term issues that concern Iraqis in this period of transition.

One issue is the writing of a new constitution that is to be the cornerstone of a democratic Iraqi state. The Governing Council in Baghdad has less than a month to unveil its program to prepare a draft, and fixing a timetable for a new constitution to come into effect.

Last summer, the council appointed a 25-man committee on constitutional matters but provided it with no clear mission statement. The group has toured Iraq, talked to people from many walks of life, and learned about the mood of the people. Three views have emerged.

One view is that the coalition should pick members of such an assembly on the basis of the same ethnic principles used to form the Governing Council. The Kurds, the Turcomans, the Christians, and the Yazidis support such a method because it would ensure them proportional representation in a constituent assembly. The second view is that the assembly should be composed of some members nominated by the Governing Council, obviously with the approval of the coalition, while others are chosen by tribes, corporations, parties, associations, guilds and cultural organizations. This view is mainly promoted by Sunnis and some non-governmental organizations in Baghdad and other major cities.

The third view is to have all members of the proposed assembly directly elected on the basis of universal adult suffrage. This is the of view most Shiite religious leaders. The most prominent of them, Grand Ayatollah Ali-Muhammad Sistani, has issued a fatwa (opinion) to that effect. Those who oppose direct elections fear that such a method would produce an assembly in which Shiites, accounting for 60 percent of Iraq’s population, will have an automatic majority. That could mean the end of Kurdish dreams for a federal state while Sunnis, some 15 percent of the population, will lose their traditional hold on power for ever.

Leaders of several parties, including some Shiite ones, also oppose direct elections because they fear the emergence of new political pattern beyond their control. Some returning exiles are opposed to direct elections because they fear it might produce a new leadership from among those who stayed in Iraq and suffered under Saddam.

What should the coalition do?

At the time of this writing it seems unlikely that the Governing Council will meet the Dec. 7 deadline fixed by the Coalition Provisional Authority. The deadline should be met. The second thing is to publish a set of principles that should guide the writing of the new constitution. Thirdly, the coalition must decide the method of forming the assembly.

The wisest course is to go for direct elections. What about fears of Shiite domination? The Shiites, over 15 million people, are as divided politically as any other community of that size. There is no possibility of a single, monolithic Shiite bloc emerging in an elected assembly.

One argument against an elected assembly is that there is no usable electoral roll. This is a real problem. There would, of course, be no problem if Iraq were considered as a single constituency with people voting for all members of the proposed assembly.

Once the coalition has opted for direct elections, it should invite the United Nations to supervise the process on the basis of a clearly defied and strictly limited mission statement. It is important that the assembly be seen as a reflection of the will of the Iraqi people and not as a creature either of the coalition or of parties and groups that, each in its own way, belong to old Iraq.

For the UN to play the role suggested it must undergo a change of heart about Iraq and its future. It should accept the liberation of Iraq as a positive event, and abandon dreams of imposing on Iraq another, albeit milder, form of Arab despotism. It is, of course, possible that the UN might not have the vision and/or the courage to play such a role. In that case an international supervisory body could be formed with the help of nations that support democratization in Iraq.