Adrienne McPhail, Special to Arab News

RIYADH, 10 November 2003 — Anyone who is interested in this part of the world should be closely analyzing the current US presidential race. President Bush and his Republican administration have moved from a defensive position justifying the invasion of Iraq to the open exportation of the principles of democracy. In his speech to the National Endowment for Democracy, President Bush crossed the line between the war on terror forcing the US into intervention in the Middle East, to a policy that promotes expanding freedom. His reference to then President Reagan’s outspoken and clear stance against communism during the Cold War demonstrates this new direction.

President Reagan said that the day of Soviet tyranny was passing, that freedom had a momentum, which would not be halted. Some observers, on both sides of the Atlantic, pronounced that speech simplistic and naive and even dangerous. In fact, Ronald Reagan’s words were courageous, optimistic and entirely correct. He further admitted that the United States had been wrong to support authoritarian and corrupt governments and that they were now paying the price for 60 years of failed Western policies.

It is apparent, that President Bush has decided to follow in the steps of President Reagan and insist that democracy and human rights are the mainstay of American foreign policy. If the editorials in American newspapers and the recent opinion polls are correct, why should he take such a stand at this time with the presidential elections just one year away? The answer, I believe, can be found in recent political events in the US. The Democratic Party has built its political machinery on appealing to the numerous groups of voters who are not in the mainstream. In the last election, when President Bush narrowly defeated Al Gore, the Democrats read a message that this strategy would work. It almost worked three years ago and it is sure to work this time.

However, this is not three years ago. The US changed after Sept. 11 and so did the world. The election of a Republican governor in the southern states of Kentucky and Mississippi should be a very loud and clear message to the Democrats. Since, the end of the Civil War the southern United States has been Democratic territory; just the thought of being a Republican was almost unheard of, even during the most trying of times for southern voters, the civil rights movement. Yet, the South is turning Republican. This can only be attributed to the average American, silent majority voices being heard at the polls. When a judge in Alabama insisted that a monument to the Ten Commandments be removed from a courthouse, the people were angry. A legal authority that did not take into consideration the three major principles by which they live, God, mother and country, was dictating their religious rights. In Wisconsin, a northern state, the state legislature just introduced a bill that would ban gay marriages. The governor is against this bill but the people have insisted on it.

Democratic candidate Howard Dean has alienated the entire Southern vote with his statement that he “wants the guy who drives a pick-up truck with a Confederate flag in his window to vote for him.” The personification of the average Southern voter as a “red neck” who is ignorant and uninformed has driven more Southern voters into the Republican camp.

What seems so obvious to the observer is that the average American believes in religion, freedom and morality. They feel threatened by the fringe groups that promote personal agendas that are not in keeping with their simple but traditional values. That the Democratic Party does not understand this underscores how out of touch they are with these voters.

Regardless of opinion polls, which are basically easy to manipulate, President Bush is demonstrating a better understanding of the American social conscience than his opponents. He has reaffirmed the policy that the US will not desert either Iraq or Afghanistan, regardless of the cost in dollars and lives. He has committed his foreign policy to a cornerstone based upon promoting democracy throughout this region. His justification for this action has been raised from a war to protect Americans at home and abroad to changing the societies within the Middle East.

This, like Ronald Reagan’s stand during the Cold War will be met with disgust and outrage by many both here and in Europe. The opinion pages of newspapers will be filled with references to American arrogance and conceit. Yet, I contend, that this position will be supported by the average mainstream American voter. It is based on the same principles that they are now defending with their votes in the US.

— Adrienne McPhail is an American journalist based in Riyadh.