Barbara Ferguson, Arab News Correspondent

WASHINGTON, 4 October 2003 — At a time when many in Washington foam at the mouth at the mere mention of Saudi Arabia, a forum organized by The New Republic magazine on Capitol Hill yesterday called for a more rational approach.

The panelists agreed on three issues: Economic and demographic issues need to be urgently addressed in Saudi Arabia; reform needs to come slowly; and too much US pressure will result in any reform initiative backfiring.

The biggest problem in Saudi Arabia today is not the government but the Kingdom’s youth, said Dr. Jean-Francois Seznec, professor at Columbia University’s School of International Affairs. “It will take a generation for the current reforms in Saudi Arabia to take effect. Meanwhile, there are a huge number of young unemployed Saudi men.”

“The Saudi population has doubled in 25 years, and is the fastest growing population in the world,” added Dr. Fawaz Gerges, chair of the International Affairs and Middle Eastern Studies at Sarah Lawrence College. “It is now expected to double again to 40 million by 2020.”

The government needs to reduce social upheaval and meet the demands and expectations of the population,” he said. “The socioeconomic context in Saudi Arabia is the dominating issue in the country.”

Because of the May 12 blowback, Saudi Arabia is beginning to suffer, and the Saudi government is paying more attention to extremists, said Patrick Lawson, deputy director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. The government has now realized that some disaffected youths have turned to an extremist ideology, he added.

“The big issue is the urgent need for the development of a civil society there,” said Seznec.

He warned the US to be cautious about pushing any reform policy in the region because the US was “extremely disliked” for its policies in Iraq and Israel. “So any support we give to Saudi liberals will backfire. Instead, we should support Saudi Arabia joining the World Trade Organization, which demands reform and transparency from all of its members.”

Charles Freeman, the former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia and president of the Middle East Policy Council, agreed. He said that if the Saudi government talked about gun reform in the US, it would not be well received.

“The same is true about us telling them to create political reform,” he added.

Patrick Lawson said it was “inappropriate” to expect the US and Saudi Arabia to have common positions on foreign policy issues. “I think political relationships suffer when we try to make friendships, as we recently saw with the US and France.”

“I think our relationship with Saudi Arabia should be one where we respectfully disagree on many issues, but agree on some very important ones. Our close relationship in the 1990s was a mistake, which is why we’re having such problems now. I think a little distance would be better for both sides,” he added.

Gerges hailed what he called “a truly vibrant debate” that is taking place in Saudi Arabia today, “which is basically punching holes into much of the secrecy that has veiled the country in the past, and the society is becoming more transparent,” he said.

But the panel’s moderator concluded with a gloomy scenario: “Saudi Arabia’s population views itself as too close to the US, and the US views the country as being too intimate with terrorists. This is not an enviable place to be,” concluded Lawrence Kaplan, senior editor of The New Republic.