The interim report into whether Iraq had weapons of mass destruction presented to US Congress by CIA official David Kay is not the final say on the matter. His Iraqi Survey Group may yet find the evidence that proves that Saddam Hussein’s regime possessed WMD.

Moreover, the report does not say that Iraq is innocent. On the contrary, it provides evidence that Iraq was working to develop WMD. Nonetheless it blasts a gaping hole in the Bush administration’s credibility, and is bound to have domestic consequences. The US went to war claiming that Iraq already possessed such weapons. It did not invade on the grounds that it might be a danger at some point in the future. Still less did they attack on the basis that the Iraqi regime was tyrannical and had to be overthrown. Under the norms of international law, being vile is a not legitimate basis for invasion.

David Kay’s report comes up with the exact same conclusions as the UN team led by Dr. Hans Blix. That means that nothing has changed in terms of a valid reason for war since he last reported to the Security Council in February. A smoking gun still has not been found. That means that the war was not justified on the basis it was undertaken. Technically, of course, the latest findings put Iraq in breach of resolution 1441: The Iraqis tried to conceal their weapons development plans from UN inspectors. This has been seized on by the supporters of invasion. But countries do not go to war on a technicality. In any event, Blix had reported on Iraqi attempts to hoodwink him.

President Bush is desperate to find a smoking gun. The Kay report is bound to damage his ratings and fuel suspicions that, if he did not actively mislead the US public, he was incompetent in not knowing the truth and did not care to know. The accusation that he went to war and put young American soldiers’ lives at risk on the basis of a threat that may not have existed is going to be thrown at him by the Democrats all the way to next year’s presidential elections. No wonder that he has ordered the investigation to be stepped up and agreed to send an extra 200 investigators to Iraq.

But a word of caution is needed. People in the Middle East imagine that this is a massive nail in Bush’s coffin, enthusiastically predicting that Iraq will ensure he loses next year’s presidential election. American elections are not won or lost on foreign issues. If they were, Bill Clinton would not have defeated Bush Sr. in 1992. Economics are the deciding issue, and the US economy is improving. There will be a lot of shouting shouted about whether there was a smoking gun, but ultimately it will be largely irrelevant to the election.