Amir Taheri, Arab News Staff

When first announced a couple of months ago, Iraq’s Governing Council was shunned by several Arab states as “non-representative”. France, Germany and a few others complained about the council’s “non-democratic nature.” A number of self-styled religious leaders in Egypt and Lebanon even issued “fatwas” forbidding contact with the council which was supposed to be “unclean.”

Now, however, the wheel of fortune has turned for the council. In Baghdad a string of foreign dignitaries wait in line to meet the members of the council or the ministers appointed by them. In some 60 countries, notably including Russia, Iran and Turkey, Iraqi embassies, consulates and legations have already been handed over to people named by the council. And last week, the Arab League formally welcomed Iraq’s new interim Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari. Next week Iraq will also regain its seats in the OIC and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). On the “fatwa” front, the Sheikh of Al-Azhar, Muhammad Sayyed Tantawi has described as “fools” the mullahs and muftis who call for a boycott of the Iraqi Governing Council.

And that is not all. The Governing Council has suddenly emerged as the central piece in a strategy that France and Germany are proposing for Iraq under the auspices of the United Nations. “We want an immediate transfer of power from the Americans to the Governing Council,” a spokesman for the German Foreign Ministry said Wednesday. The French media, reflecting President Jacques Chirac’s thinking, are also campaigning for an end to rule by the American interim administrator Paul Bremer and its replacement by the Governing Council.

Iraq may have a couple of hard years ahead. But it has all that is needed to become a success story in the medium and longer term. No power interested in the Middle East could afford to stay out of Iraq and sulk. To enter Iraq right now, however, it is necessary to acknowledge the leading role of the United States. And this is precisely what many opponents of the war wish to avoid. They believe they can circumvent the problem by driving a wedge between the US and the Governing Council.

Three models for the transition period in Iraq are under study. The first is the East Timor model under which the UN will declare a mandate on Iraq and run the country until the emergence of a freely elected government in Baghdad. That model, supported by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, initially enjoyed some support from several members of the Iraqi Governing Council, notably Adnan Pachachi, himself a former foreign minister of Iraq. Now, however, there is virtually no support for that model within the council.

The second model is that of Cambodia where the UN worked alongside an existing government in Phnom Penh. This model is supported by France and Germany. Roughly, the Franco-German scenario would run as follows: The UN will recognize the Governing Council as the sole representative of Iraqi sovereignty. The Bremer administration will then be transformed into a US aid project in Iraq. The UN will then assume control of Iraq in a period of transition. The UN representative in Iraq will then fix a timetable for writing a new constitution and holding elections to create a new state and government.

The third model is that of Afghanistan where the US remains in a leadership position alongside the government of Hamid Karzai in Kabul. The idea is to increase the authority of the Governing Council and let the newly created Council of Ministers assume genuine executive power. Bremer would then act as an upper chamber of a parliament, retaining an effective veto on key questions until an elected government is in place.

The question that the Bush administration must ask is whether or not it is worth it to expose Iraq to international diplomatic rivalry in exchange for what is bound to be minimal material and military support from the UN.

France, Germany and a few others, who do not wish to see Bush re-elected, are determined to push the price so high as to make it impossible for Washington to accept without losing control of the situation in Iraq. The message that Paris and Berlin wish to covey is this: Bush and his “neocons” created a mess, now we enter to save Iraq from destruction.

- Arab News Opinion 12 September 2003