Paul Bremer, the US civil administrator in Iraq, says that Iraq’s needs are “almost impossible to exaggerate”; over the next 12 months, tens of billions of dollars will be required to rebuild the country. Just for starters, it will cost $2 billion simply to restore the electricity supply. A further $16 billion is needed to provide clean water. Iraq cannot pay. It has the oil but not the revenue, nor will it have it for some time. Despite US efforts to avoid destroying the oil industry during the invasion, sabotage and looting have put much of it out of action. The problem is exacerbated by the lack of electricity and water.

President Bush concurs. On Tuesday, he said that “substantial” time and money will be needed to rebuild Iraq. By Wednesday the White House had promised that Iraq would get the necessary funds.

But where are they to come from? The US already spends a billion dollars a day on the military side. Add to that another $30-$50 billion for reconstruction and there has to be a serious risk that the US taxpayer will start to say that enough is enough. Moreover, Bremer is probably underestimating the costs. It will be 14 months before oil production is back at 2002 levels — but that is not going to meet the costs of reconstruction. It could well be a further year before oil exports generate sufficient revenue to pay the bills. And none of that takes into account existing Iraqi debts to countries like France and Russia.

Even more emotive is the cost in terms of US servicemen’s lives. If they continue to die at the present rate, domestic pressure will grow for the administration to pull out. That cost is impossible to calcualte.

Against this background, Washington’s solution — sharing the financial and military burdens with the rest of the international community — makes obvious sense. The trouble is that although some 45 countries have agreed to help, others have refused unless the United Nations is allowed to manage Iraq. The trouble is that those others are countries such as France and Germany and bodies such as the EU, whose aid would make all the difference. So far, while Washington is now offering to hand over military operations to the UN providing the man in charge is an American, it is not prepared to hand over political control.

That means that, for the time being at least, the US will end up with the lion’s share of the bills. The Bush administration is going to have its work cut out trying to find the money. The trouble is that if it does not, and Iraqi expectations are not met, anti-US sentiments there are going to spiral along with the costs. That in turn will increase calls at home to up and quit. It is turning into a Catch-22.