Amir Taheri

With international attention focused on Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran, little notice is taken of Algeria, another major political battleground in the Muslim world. With presidential election expected next April, however, Algeria is certain to return to the headlines. In fact, the campaign started months ago when President Abdelaziz Bouteflika fired his Prime Minister Ali Benflis who was deemed to be harboring presidential ambitions of his own.

Three political forces have been competing for power in the Muslim world since the late 1970s.

The oldest of these could be described as the force of inertia, representing the established order that has systematically opposed radical change and tried to protect the privileges of the ruling elite. That force assumes different manifestations in different Muslim countries. In Algeria it represents the armed forces, the security services, the bureaucracy, the state-controlled sector of the economy and the various associations and organizations that get a share of the oil and gas income controlled by the state. In the last presidential election, Bouteflika was fielded as the candidate of that establishment.

The second represents groups, associations and parties that use the label “Islamic”. In the two direct presidential elections held in Algeria so far, the Islamist movement has had a candidate in only one. In that election the Islamist candidate, Mahfoud Nahnah, a moderate, came second, collecting almost a quarter of the votes. The third force represents the various democratic, liberal and reformist parties and associations backed by the middle classes and parts of the urban working class. These forces fielded a number of candidates in the first presidential election and collected around 12 percent of the votes.

Provided the three forces commit themselves to genuine elections as the only means of attaining political power, their competition could revitalize Muslim political life that has been atrophied by decades of despotism and violence.

Will next April’s election offer Algerians a real choice? It is too early to tell. Powerful clans within the establishment are already busy plotting a scripted election with the cast of characters they want. Under that script, Bouteflika will enter the race as “the candidate of consensus” while the Islamists and the democrats will be represented either by candidates who are unable to widen their audience or by too many candidates who will divide their respective camps.

The element of uncertainty in all this is the decision by Ali Belhadj, the charismatic leader of the banned Front for Islamic Salvation (FIS) to become a candidate in next April’s presidential election. Belhadj has established himself as the unquestioned hero of the most radical elements of the banned FIS. In 1990 Belhadj told us in an interview that Islam was incompatible with democracy based on elections. He agreed that Islamists should use elections to win power but that, once in power, they should not accept elections that may force them out. His slogan at the time was “ One Man, One Vote, Once!”

The democratic and liberal camp is likely to be divided once again, thus reducing its chances of victory. The veteran human rights leader, Said Sadi, is almost certain to stand. But will he be able to mobilize support beyond his native Kabyle region and the capital Algiers? In any case the Front or Socialist Forces (FFS) of the veteran independence movement leaser Hocine Ait-Ahmed may once again split Sadi’s camp.

The democratic and liberal camp would have a strong chance if it were to unite behind a single candidate who can take votes from both the establishment and the pro-Islamist constituencies. Such a candidate could be Benflis, the former prime minister. A longtime campaigner for human rights, Benflis now leads the Front for National Liberation (FLN).

The ideal would be a three-horse race: Bouteflika representing the establishment, Belhadj bearing the standard for the Islamists, and Benflis standing for democrats, liberals and reformers in the context of a carefully negotiated and properly spelled-out common program. Thus the next election could offer the Algerian voter a real choice while showing that only in democracy can the three forces of Islamic politics coexist and compete without violence, terror and tyranny.