President Bush’s early departure from the G-8 summit in Evian for Sharm El-Sheikh is a signal that he considered yesterday’s meeting with Arab leaders and today’s with the Palestinian and Israeli prime ministers far more important. It suggests that at long last Washington is prepared to use its power and influence to force a breakthrough between Israelis and Palestinians. No wonder optimism was in evidence yesterday among the various Arab delegations at Sharm El-Sheikh. There are other reasons, too, to believe that the cycle of violence and despair in the occupied territories can be ended and a settlement achieved.

For all that, though, the optimism at Sharm El-Sheikh is likely to prove short-lived. Sure, Bush is taking the Palestinian issue more seriously than he has ever done. For the first time he has come to the region to negotiate; for the first time, the US is actually rooting for a Palestinian leader, Mahmoud Abbas. All this is new. But how far is Bush prepared to go to make turn the much-heralded roadmap into reality?

Not very far it seems. The word according to some US officials in Sharm El-Sheikh is that Bush does not want to be perceived in the US as pushing the Israeli leader very hard. If that is true, then the outlook is bleak. Today’s meeting with Sharon and Abbas will be yet another staging post on an older roadmap — the roadmap to nowhere. Bush wants the new Palestinian prime minister to deliver an end to suicide bombs and violence. He wants Palestinians to support Abbas. All that can happen if, out of this process, Palestinian sufferings are alleviated, if restrictions are eased, if a new Palestine is built. Solve the Palestinian problem and violence will end. More than that, a good deal of the fuel for international terrorism will also have gone. But that can only happen if Sharon delivers, and Sharon will not deliver unless the US delivers. There is no way that American mediation can work without the Bush team forcing the Israeli concessions. There are signs that it is happening; the fact that today’s talks are talking place at all indicates that the screw has been turned on an unwilling Sharon. But getting him to the talks is not enough. He is a grand master of deception, making conciliatory sounding gestures while in reality doing the exact opposite. Washington has to squeeze Sharon until he delivers.

And one all-important point has to be remembered. Nothing will happen if Bush backs Sharon’s insistence that Palestinian violence end before negotiations can start. All sides have to face up to the uncomfortable reality that negotiations will have to take place even with bombs exploding in the streets outside. Only when hope for the future is given to those so desperate that they are prepared to kill themselves will the violence end.