Nevertheless a “Cold War” between much of the Muslim world and the West is certainly in full swing. Winston Churchill who coined the phrase “Iron Curtain” was not the inventor of the “Cold War.” That, “La Guerra Fria”, was the term used by 13th century Spaniards to describe their complicated and uneasy relationship with the Muslims of the Mediterranean.

There is a process, especially in American political discourse, that tends to overstate dangers. The most egregious example was Vietnam with its theology of falling dominoes. Similarly, in retrospect, it is quite clear that the menace of Soviet military strength was overstated almost to the point of ludicrousness.

As for the clash of civilizations it should be apparent by now, and the second Gulf War has made it clearer than ever, that the Islamic world is not that homogeneous and is riven by fault lines, even as it shares one important historical experience — the imposition of Western culture, first by force of arms and more recently by the twin influences of the market place and economic modernization.

Moreover, unlike Western and Chinese civilizations, Islam does not possess a core state of overwhelming influence and power around which the others can rally and identify. Egypt 30 years ago tried that role and was found wanting. Over the last two years, despite the rhetoric, the bluster, the wishful thinking, the conspiracy theories that linked Israel to the Sept. 11 atrocity, there is no great well of sympathy in the Islamic world for Osama Bin Laden or, come to that, Saddam Hussein. Bin Laden, as the war historian Michael Howard wrote in Foreign Affairs, is about as representative of Islam as is the Northern Ireland firebrand, Ian Paisley, representative of Christianity

In his book “The Clash of Civilizations” Harvard Professor Samuel Huntington made a grave error — to see the appeal of the West, which he fears is being rejected by the Islamic world, in terms of modern culture and contemporary financial priorities. What he missed is the impact that spreading notions of human rights are having deep within the Islamic world, as they are everywhere.

Islam, as Christianity before it, is evolving at a rapid pace. St. Thomas Aquinas advocated putting heretics to death and the Protestant reformer Jean Calvin had one outspoken dissident executed. And it is only a generation ago that political observers used to note that the Catholic countries of Southern Europe and Latin America were constitutionally and philosophically unable to take to democracy. But Islam is changing very fast. It is more than beginning to think about democracy.

If the Islamic world is as potentially dangerous as is suggested, then the best long-term counter weapon is not added security in the Western world or war-making but removing the main cause of friction — America’s over dependence on Middle Eastern oil, American soldiers based in the Gulf and the lack of a viable homeland for the Palestinians — together with the vigorous and credible pursuit of human rights, the backbone of freedom for people of every religious persuasion.