US Elections and the 1 Percent Solution

 

Saturday  May 1, 2004

Michael Saba, Arab News

WASHINGTON, 1 May 2004 — Shortly after President Bush met with Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and declared a major shift in US policy on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry brought together key operatives to discuss his position on this dispute. Bush had set a new agenda favoring Sharon and Israel on almost every major point. Kerry was on the defensive regarding the support of the American Jewish community and quickly made adjustments.

Kerry immediately declared that he supported the Sharon separation plan as well as the Bush letter to the Sharon government and joined Bush in justifying Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader Abdelaziz Al-Rantissi. Kerry then arranged a trip to Florida with Sen. Joe Lieberman, who was the first Jewish candidate on a major American presidential/vice presidential ticket. Florida is a state with a relatively large Jewish population. Kerry announced at a rally in Florida, “I have not a 99 percent, but a 100 percent record of sustaining the special relationship and friendship that we have with Israel.”

Kerry had just announced the one percent solution. Bush was only 99 percent behind Israel and Sharon while Kerry was a hundred percenter. Let’s take a look at some percentages in the American political arena for a moment and ask some questions about these figures.

Jews constitute only about two percent of the American population, but they tend to have a much stronger political role in American politics than their raw numbers indicate.

Jews are concentrated in important political battleground states such as Florida and Ohio. They are known for their large turnout in elections — as much as 80 percent as compared to around 50 percent for the national average of all American voters. And particularly in this era of “soft” political money, recent estimates state that 50 to 70 percent of large contributions to the Democratic Party and allied political entities came from Jewish donors.

However, at this point we seem to have a disconnect for the Republican party. Not only have Jewish donors historically been large contributors to the Democratic party, they also have voted overwhelmingly for the Democratic presidential candidate. In almost every year since 1972, according to various credible polls, the Democratic presidential candidate has won almost 2/3 of the Jewish vote.

The one exception was Jimmy Carter’s second race in 1980 where Carter still won a plurality of the Jewish vote. David Harris, deputy executive director of the National Jewish Democratic Council doesn’t see any major change in this trend. “ The long view is that Jews in America have voted overwhelmingly Democratic since the New Deal,” Harris has said. And Harris states that we will see the same trend reappearing in the 2004 election. So what motivates George W. to seemingly pander to this vote. Is it conviction for “what is right” or does his political handler, Karl Rove, have something up his sleeve.

In the 2002 congressional elections, the Republicans garnered about 35 percent of the vote though George W. had taken only 19 percent of that vote in 2000. And the Republican gubernatorial candidates in last October’s California recall election got 40 percent of the Jewish vote. Pronounced pro-Israeli shifts in the hard-core Republican congressional leadership and direct appeals to “Christian Zionist” voters on the part of the Republicans seemed to make the difference in 2002 and 2003. Bush has made a commensurate shift in the last four years. And the focus is on key states and key money for the 2004 elections.

“If you swing the Jewish vote 10 percent in Ohio, that could give you Ohio,” Nathan Diament who lobbies for issues important to Orthodox Judaism recently told the Washington Post. And we all remember the important role that the state of Florida with its large Jewish vote played in the 2000 election. Again Rove isn’t necessarily trying to win a majority of the Jewish vote in these and other critical states for his boss. He has just targeted obtaining an increased percentage of the Jewish vote to get George W. over the top.

What about the money? According to the Hill, a Washington DC-based publication, Jack Rosen a frequent past contributor to the Democratic Party, and president of the liberal-leaning American Jewish Congress, has given $100,000 to Republicans since Bush took office. And California businessman Ronald Arnall and wife Dawn, who in the past have given close to $1.5 million to Democratic candidates and party committees since 2000, raised $1 million for Bush at a fund-raiser last August. In addition, Dawn Arnall gave $1 million at the end of 2002 to the Republican National Committee. So votes and money from the Jewish electorate are there for the Republican and Democratic candidates for president. And the Bush strategy is to take just enough of both away from the Democrats to make a difference. And probably most importantly, there is no “down side” for either candidate to pander to the Jewish vote. There is very little money and there are very few votes for the candidate who votes against pro-Israeli interests in the United States.

A few days ago, incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter won the Republican primary in Pennsylvania against a conservative challenger. With a total vote of over one million, Specter won by less than one percent. Specter who is pro-Israeli, won against a congressman who appeals to the “Christian Zionist” vote. One way or another Israel was sure to have a Republican defender in this US Senate race, and we see just one more example of the one percent solution.

— Dr. Michael Saba is the author of “The Armageddon Network” and is an international relations consultant.

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