Cypriots, both Greek and Turkish, begin the New Year with a fresh opportunity to end the rift that has divided their island since 1974.  After Dec. 14 elections in the Turkish north of the island, which produced an even split between parties favoring and opposed to reunion, Turkish Cypriot President Rauf Denktash asked a pro-union politician to form a government.

Given the equal division in the legislature, the task ahead of Mehmet Ali Talat, leader of the Republican Turkish Party is a tough one.

Talat’s party with 19 seats is the largest in Parliament. However, even with support from the equally pro-reunion Peace and Democracy Party which has six seats, Talat cannot expect to push through any legislation unless he has the backing of at least one MP from the rival National Unity (18 seats) or Democratic (7) parties. On the face of it, a stand-off seems inevitable and fresh elections a certainty. But President Denktash has probably calculated that his nationalist supporters would do less well in a further vote.

By offering the government to his main political opponent, he may be hoping that the nationalist cause may be strengthened by any political failures of the reunionists. But the veteran Turkish president has probably got this wrong. Ever since he bowed to popular clamor and opened up the line that divided the island, allowing the Turkish and Greek communities to mix freely for the first time in nearly 30 years, the tide of opinion in favor of reunion has been rising. It is not just that Turkish Cypriots want an end to division; they also want to be part of the Cyprus that will become a member of the European Union on May 1. This is still possible if the leaders of both communities can agree on reunion before then. Denktash’s former opposition to any reunion has since moderated to refusal unless the terms are right. He fears that the Greeks will once again dominate the Turkish minority.  Unfortunately, the best terms the Turkish community might have obtained were on offer from former Greek Cypriot leader President Glafcos Clerides.

Denktash may calculate that even if premier-designate Talat can form a government, he will never be able to cut a deal with Tassos Papadopoulos that will be acceptable to the electorate. Thus the tide for reunion will be reversed. Denktash is clearly unimpressed by the May 1 deadline and believes that there will be better reunification opportunities once Greek Cyprus is with the EU. It is however unlikely that his voters will be happy to see the financial bounty from Brussels flowing to their Greek neighbors and not themselves. Self-interest combined with the growing desire for reconciliation and closure of a long sad chapter in Cyprus’s history seem set to overwhelm the nationalist objections of the old president and his supporters.